Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
